Predictions for 2011


FireworksHere’s the obligatory predictions post to kick off the year, seems to be all the rage, so here goes…

  • Much to my dismay there won’t be an iPhone on Verizon this year. OK, according to everyone else in the world I’m probably wrong. But I just don’t see Apple being willing to give up control of the OS (such as what goes on it and when updates can happen) and I don’t see Verizon being willing to have a phone they can’t clutter up with VCast and their other added cost services. Maybe they’ll work out some sort of app store deal but I doubt it. I just think that each company would view a deal as detrimental to their bottom line, even if more physical phones are shipped. Verizon will want to push LTE to build their business and Apple won’t want a phone that uses tech that hasn’t been in the trenches. But I’d happily be wrong and get a Verizon iPhone as soon as it’s available.
  • Google TV will be on life support this year. The only reason it won’t die is Google wants to be in the living room but they’ll do more than upgrade the current version. Manufacturers must be timid after Google asked them to hold back Google TV CES announcements. And asked barely a month before CES. They’d already pissed off the networks and content providers, and now the manufacturers can’t be happy.
  • Tablets/Slates will be all the rage at CES again this year. Thousands of headlines will state “The Year of the Tablet”, just like last year. There will be more tablets this year, but that won’t be hard to do. The iPad will still outsell them all combined. Microsoft Windows will not be a significant tablet OS this year.
  • Despite what McAfee says (again) there will not be a significant Mac virus outbreak. I will put a caveat here – a trojan that requires a user to enter their password to install, does not count.
  • Apple will release an updated, thinner iPad with a camera. Since my first prediction will most likely be wrong I should be allowed a slam dunk.